MyDD :: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy?

Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy?

by Ignored and Disgusted, Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:05:46 AM EST

After hearing of Rep. Clyburn's expected endorsement of
Obama, I was looking at The Hill's list of uncommitted congressional superdelegates, many of whom are vulnerable in their bids for reelection. These include Mary Landrieu, Nancy Boyda, Nick Lampson, Tim Mahoney, (possibly) Lincoln Davis, etc. My question is who will these members of congress endorse? I would guess that most members of the democratic caucus in the south will endorse Senator Clinton, as will those in Florida. However, uncommittted supers like Jon Tester, Herb Kohl (NOT Russ Feingold), Frank Lautenberg, etc. are harder to predict.
I'm interested in hearing anybody else's predictions on who these uncommitted congressional supers will ultimately endorse.

Tags: vulnerable, superdelegate, clinton, obama, racist (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

'Vulnerable' - especially freshman members of Congress - Dems have held off on endorsing because the negatives have outweighed the positives. They will endorse soon (more than a few of the freshmen this week) and they will endorse the party's nominee, Barack Obama.

McCain = Iraq. John McCain = overturn Roe.

by PantsB on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:13:44 AM EST

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

I doubt many of them will, for Obama is highly unpopular in many "crossover" districts, particularly in the south.

by Ignored and Disgusted on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:17:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

How'd they get elected then, with those ads being run against them?

No, the truth is that they'll endorse Obama, because it's not a leap of faith anymore to do so. He'll be the nominee, hands down.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:19:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

PFFFT. (none / 0)

They have been holding off because they want to endorse the nominee. And they will.

"It's time to pass the baton to the next generation." Ken Jacobson, WA state senator.

by tibbs on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:19:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

Yeah, that worked out so well in the three special elections this year. eye rolls

I CAN HAZ BAHROCK DONASCHON?

by kasjogren on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:42:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

HA! (none / 0)

Yeah...

Bill Foster, Travis Childers, and Don Cazayoux all think you're full of crap and don't know what the hell you're talking about.

All 3 won GOP districts -- Foster actually had Obama campaigning for him and appearing in commercials, while both Childers and Cazayoux faced a non-stop torrent of anti-Obama ads from the NRCC and GOP 527s.

Guess what... Each successive race was won by a LARGER margin than the previous, and each district was REDDER than previous.

EPIC FAIL.

Try again.

by zonk on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:55:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

There will be 0 super delegates for clinton now I believe. Not one will endorse her.

by Cheebs on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:14:36 AM EST

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

Obama needs only a few more Supers. The vulnerable Supers are not needed and will be not be asked to endorse until the convention.

by rf7777 on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:21:55 AM EST

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

I think this is right. Once Obama has the numbers to clinch and becomes the nominee, the impact of these endorsements is kind of meaningless, which provides anybody in a tough race cover. They'll endorse at some point over the summer with little fanfare or at the convention. It's best for everybody this way.

John McCain: Extending SCHIP would be an "unfunded liability."

by Fuzzy Dunlop on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:24:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (2.00 / 1)

Most of the dems from conservative southern districts probably won't publicly endorse either candidate--not until the convention, that is. It would be a liability to be associated too closely with either candidate.

by DPW on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:24:24 AM EST

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

Hell, a not insignificant portion of them will avoid going to the convention at all

John McCain wants to make abortion illegal

by Lost Thought on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:29:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

I don't expect Landrieu to endorse Obama. She's much more conservative and represents a more conservative constituency than dems in other parts of the nation. Louisiana is quite red Obama is VERY unpopular outside of Orleans Parish. She also must think of who she represents outside of Orleans Parish. She barely won reelection. SInce Wright Obama does not play well with the white protestant or catholic voters. I also don't think Cazayouz will endorse Obama regardless of what Obama supporters think since the Baton Rouge area is even more conservative than those areas around New Orleans. To cut this short Obama wont carry LA and any Dem who endorses him will face some backlash from their conservative constituents.

by Iceblinkjm on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:37:28 AM EST

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

Really? Clinton only won 20 parishes and Obama won the rest. He beat her by 85 thousands votes or 21% and the special election in LA was ran as an anti Obama campaign and we still picked up the seat.

Just cause you don't like Obama doesn't mean you get to rewrite election results and demographics. The truth (and statistics) will set you free.

I CAN HAZ BAHROCK DONASCHON?

by kasjogren on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:45:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

High black turnout and low white turn out. Dems are not too popular in the state since Katrina with those afflicted outside of New Orleans. They ran an anti Obama campaign but the candidate ran ads and made many many comments separating himself from Obama. He flat out stated he was not endorsing Obama at the time he was asked.He did not run your average liberal dem campaign. He's pro life and pro gun. I've actually lived in the state and have contacts and family on the ground.I also used to be a part of the LA DNC and worked on Landrieus campaigns in the 90's. McCain will win LA unless we run a moderate democrat who has not been tarred by a racist church. PERIOD. Cajuns and white protestants do not like anti american or anti white speech and there's been plenty of that this primary season.

Rewriting election results is what your candidate did in MI.Spare me. I doubt you've been to LA or know anyone from LA.

by Iceblinkjm on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:55:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

Dems are not popular b/c of Katrina, but Republicans are? I don't follow...

John McCain wants to make abortion illegal

by Lost Thought on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 11:00:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Vulnerable superdelegates: Strategy? (none / 0)

My Grandma lived in Shreveport when I was growing up and I went there all the time since its just a few hours drive from Dallas so is there a different straw man you would like to argue with now?

I CAN HAZ BAHROCK DONASCHON?

by kasjogren on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 11:17:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Wright strategy failed (none / 0)

There's no reason to think that the Wright strategy will work any better on these people than it did on Cazayoux.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:46:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Wright strategy failed (none / 0)

What's more, it failed WORSE each time the GOP tried to use it.

Travis Childers won an even redder district than Cazayouz by an even larger margin!

So sure... let the GOP waste whatever money they have using a tactic that's already failed twice.

Hell... How do I encourage them to do so?

by zonk on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:59:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good point (none / 0)

I suggest letters of support.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 11:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They'll endorse (none / 0)

Some of them might not be this week, but eventually they'll support the nominee.

Being afraid of Republicans is pase'.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 10:45:15 AM EST

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